Keeping pace with climate change: What is wrong with the evolutionary potential of upper thermal limits?

Mauro Santos, Luis E. Castañeda, Enrico L. Rezende

Resultado de la investigación: Article

15 Citas (Scopus)

Resumen

The potential of populations to evolve in response to ongoing climate change is partly conditioned by the presence of heritable genetic variation in relevant physiological traits. Recent research suggests that Drosophila melanogaster exhibits negligible heritability, hence little evolutionary potential in heat tolerance when measured under slow heating rates that presumably mimic conditions in nature. Here, we study the effects of directional selection for increased heat tolerance using Drosophila as a model system. We combine a physiological model to simulate thermal tolerance assays with multilocus models for quantitative traits. Our simulations show that, whereas the evolutionary response of the genetically determined upper thermal limit (CTmax) is independent of methodological context, the response in knockdown temperatures varies with measurement protocol and is substantially (up to 50%) lower than for CTmax. Realized heritabilities of knockdown temperature may grossly underestimate the true heritability of CTmax. For instance, assuming that the true heritability of CTmax in the base population is h2 = 0.25, realized heritabilities of knockdown temperature are around 0.08-0.16 depending on heating rate. These effects are higher in slow heating assays, suggesting that flawed methodology might explain the apparently limited evolutionary potential of cosmopolitan D. melanogaster.

Idioma originalEnglish
Páginas (desde-hasta)2866-2880
Número de páginas15
PublicaciónEcology and Evolution
Volumen2
N.º11
DOI
EstadoPublished - 1 dic 2012

Huella dactilar

heritability
climate change
heat
heat tolerance
tolerance
heating
Drosophila melanogaster
assay
temperature
assays
quantitative traits
genetic variation
Drosophila
methodology
simulation
rate
effect

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics
  • Ecology
  • Nature and Landscape Conservation

Citar esto

Santos, Mauro ; Castañeda, Luis E. ; Rezende, Enrico L. / Keeping pace with climate change : What is wrong with the evolutionary potential of upper thermal limits?. En: Ecology and Evolution. 2012 ; Vol. 2, N.º 11. pp. 2866-2880.
@article{c6d1aabfd04a465aaa60f971daeb2ad0,
title = "Keeping pace with climate change: What is wrong with the evolutionary potential of upper thermal limits?",
abstract = "The potential of populations to evolve in response to ongoing climate change is partly conditioned by the presence of heritable genetic variation in relevant physiological traits. Recent research suggests that Drosophila melanogaster exhibits negligible heritability, hence little evolutionary potential in heat tolerance when measured under slow heating rates that presumably mimic conditions in nature. Here, we study the effects of directional selection for increased heat tolerance using Drosophila as a model system. We combine a physiological model to simulate thermal tolerance assays with multilocus models for quantitative traits. Our simulations show that, whereas the evolutionary response of the genetically determined upper thermal limit (CTmax) is independent of methodological context, the response in knockdown temperatures varies with measurement protocol and is substantially (up to 50{\%}) lower than for CTmax. Realized heritabilities of knockdown temperature may grossly underestimate the true heritability of CTmax. For instance, assuming that the true heritability of CTmax in the base population is h2 = 0.25, realized heritabilities of knockdown temperature are around 0.08-0.16 depending on heating rate. These effects are higher in slow heating assays, suggesting that flawed methodology might explain the apparently limited evolutionary potential of cosmopolitan D. melanogaster.",
keywords = "Ctmax, Heating rate, Knockdown resistance, Metabolic rate, Selection responses, Thermotolerance",
author = "Mauro Santos and Casta{\~n}eda, {Luis E.} and Rezende, {Enrico L.}",
year = "2012",
month = "12",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1002/ece3.385",
language = "English",
volume = "2",
pages = "2866--2880",
journal = "Ecology and Evolution",
issn = "2045-7758",
publisher = "John Wiley and Sons Ltd",
number = "11",

}

Keeping pace with climate change : What is wrong with the evolutionary potential of upper thermal limits? / Santos, Mauro; Castañeda, Luis E.; Rezende, Enrico L.

En: Ecology and Evolution, Vol. 2, N.º 11, 01.12.2012, p. 2866-2880.

Resultado de la investigación: Article

TY - JOUR

T1 - Keeping pace with climate change

T2 - What is wrong with the evolutionary potential of upper thermal limits?

AU - Santos, Mauro

AU - Castañeda, Luis E.

AU - Rezende, Enrico L.

PY - 2012/12/1

Y1 - 2012/12/1

N2 - The potential of populations to evolve in response to ongoing climate change is partly conditioned by the presence of heritable genetic variation in relevant physiological traits. Recent research suggests that Drosophila melanogaster exhibits negligible heritability, hence little evolutionary potential in heat tolerance when measured under slow heating rates that presumably mimic conditions in nature. Here, we study the effects of directional selection for increased heat tolerance using Drosophila as a model system. We combine a physiological model to simulate thermal tolerance assays with multilocus models for quantitative traits. Our simulations show that, whereas the evolutionary response of the genetically determined upper thermal limit (CTmax) is independent of methodological context, the response in knockdown temperatures varies with measurement protocol and is substantially (up to 50%) lower than for CTmax. Realized heritabilities of knockdown temperature may grossly underestimate the true heritability of CTmax. For instance, assuming that the true heritability of CTmax in the base population is h2 = 0.25, realized heritabilities of knockdown temperature are around 0.08-0.16 depending on heating rate. These effects are higher in slow heating assays, suggesting that flawed methodology might explain the apparently limited evolutionary potential of cosmopolitan D. melanogaster.

AB - The potential of populations to evolve in response to ongoing climate change is partly conditioned by the presence of heritable genetic variation in relevant physiological traits. Recent research suggests that Drosophila melanogaster exhibits negligible heritability, hence little evolutionary potential in heat tolerance when measured under slow heating rates that presumably mimic conditions in nature. Here, we study the effects of directional selection for increased heat tolerance using Drosophila as a model system. We combine a physiological model to simulate thermal tolerance assays with multilocus models for quantitative traits. Our simulations show that, whereas the evolutionary response of the genetically determined upper thermal limit (CTmax) is independent of methodological context, the response in knockdown temperatures varies with measurement protocol and is substantially (up to 50%) lower than for CTmax. Realized heritabilities of knockdown temperature may grossly underestimate the true heritability of CTmax. For instance, assuming that the true heritability of CTmax in the base population is h2 = 0.25, realized heritabilities of knockdown temperature are around 0.08-0.16 depending on heating rate. These effects are higher in slow heating assays, suggesting that flawed methodology might explain the apparently limited evolutionary potential of cosmopolitan D. melanogaster.

KW - Ctmax

KW - Heating rate

KW - Knockdown resistance

KW - Metabolic rate

KW - Selection responses

KW - Thermotolerance

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84880137018&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1002/ece3.385

DO - 10.1002/ece3.385

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:84880137018

VL - 2

SP - 2866

EP - 2880

JO - Ecology and Evolution

JF - Ecology and Evolution

SN - 2045-7758

IS - 11

ER -