Early Predictors of Abdominal Hemorrhage among Critically Ill Patients with Pancreatitis: A Prospective Cohort Study

To establish incidence, risk factors, and prognostic implications of abdominal hemorrhage (AH) among critically ill patients with acute pancreatitis (AP). Methods Prospective cohort study in 46 intensive care units aimed at describing the characteristics of critically ill patients with AP (Epidemiología de la Pancreatitis Aguda en Medicina Intensiva Study). Adult patients with AP and at least 1 organ failure were included. The presence of AH was established either by using computed tomography, magnetic resonance imaging, or by direct visualization during surgery. Statistical analyses were carried out using multivariate logistic regression. Results Three hundred seventy-four patients were studied. Most were men (62.6%), with a mean (standard deviation) age of 60.4 (15.6) years. Most episodes (56.4%) of AP were severe, and 28.9% died during their hospital stay. Thirty-eight patients (10.2%; 95% confidence interval, 7.3%-13.7%) developed AH. The odds of presenting AH was influenced by age, the underlying cause of pancreatitis, and the presence of shock or respiratory failure on admission. Conclusions Abdominal hemorrhages were common among critically ill patients with pancreatitis. These early predictors may be of use in detecting patients at risk of developing them.