A global map of suitability for coastal Vibrio cholerae under current and future climate conditions

Luis E. Escobar, Sadie J. Ryan, Anna M. Stewart-Ibarra, Julia L. Finkelstein, Christine A. King, Huijie Qiao, Mark E. Polhemus

Resultado de la investigación: Article

32 Citas (Scopus)

Resumen

Vibrio cholerae is a globally distributed water-borne pathogen that causes severe diarrheal disease and mortality, with current outbreaks as part of the seventh pandemic. Further understanding of the role of environmental factors in potential pathogen distribution and corresponding V. cholerae disease transmission over time and space is urgently needed to target surveillance of cholera and other climate and water-sensitive diseases. We used an ecological niche model (ENM) to identify environmental variables associated with V. cholerae presence in marine environments, to project a global model of V. cholerae distribution in ocean waters under current and future climate scenarios. We generated an ENM using published reports of V. cholerae in seawater and freely available remotely sensed imagery. Models indicated that factors associated with V. cholerae presence included chlorophyll-a, pH, and sea surface temperature (SST), with chlorophyll-a demonstrating the greatest explanatory power from variables selected for model calibration. We identified specific geographic areas for potential V. cholerae distribution. Coastal Bangladesh, where cholera is endemic, was found to be environmentally similar to coastal areas in Latin America. In a conservative climate change scenario, we observed a predicted increase in areas with environmental conditions suitable for V. cholerae. Findings highlight the potential for vulnerability maps to inform cholera surveillance, early warning systems, and disease prevention and control.

Idioma originalEnglish
Páginas (desde-hasta)202-211
Número de páginas10
PublicaciónActa Tropica
Volumen149
DOI
EstadoPublished - 1 sep 2015
Publicado de forma externa

Huella dactilar

Vibrio cholerae
Climate
climate
cholera
Cholera
Oceans and Seas
environmental factors
Water
niches
seawater
early warning systems
chlorophyll
Bangladesh
Latin America
pathogens
monitoring
Climate Change
Imagery (Psychotherapy)
disease prevention
Seawater

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Parasitology
  • Infectious Diseases

Citar esto

Escobar, L. E., Ryan, S. J., Stewart-Ibarra, A. M., Finkelstein, J. L., King, C. A., Qiao, H., & Polhemus, M. E. (2015). A global map of suitability for coastal Vibrio cholerae under current and future climate conditions. Acta Tropica, 149, 202-211. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actatropica.2015.05.028
Escobar, Luis E. ; Ryan, Sadie J. ; Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M. ; Finkelstein, Julia L. ; King, Christine A. ; Qiao, Huijie ; Polhemus, Mark E. / A global map of suitability for coastal Vibrio cholerae under current and future climate conditions. En: Acta Tropica. 2015 ; Vol. 149. pp. 202-211.
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abstract = "Vibrio cholerae is a globally distributed water-borne pathogen that causes severe diarrheal disease and mortality, with current outbreaks as part of the seventh pandemic. Further understanding of the role of environmental factors in potential pathogen distribution and corresponding V. cholerae disease transmission over time and space is urgently needed to target surveillance of cholera and other climate and water-sensitive diseases. We used an ecological niche model (ENM) to identify environmental variables associated with V. cholerae presence in marine environments, to project a global model of V. cholerae distribution in ocean waters under current and future climate scenarios. We generated an ENM using published reports of V. cholerae in seawater and freely available remotely sensed imagery. Models indicated that factors associated with V. cholerae presence included chlorophyll-a, pH, and sea surface temperature (SST), with chlorophyll-a demonstrating the greatest explanatory power from variables selected for model calibration. We identified specific geographic areas for potential V. cholerae distribution. Coastal Bangladesh, where cholera is endemic, was found to be environmentally similar to coastal areas in Latin America. In a conservative climate change scenario, we observed a predicted increase in areas with environmental conditions suitable for V. cholerae. Findings highlight the potential for vulnerability maps to inform cholera surveillance, early warning systems, and disease prevention and control.",
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Escobar, LE, Ryan, SJ, Stewart-Ibarra, AM, Finkelstein, JL, King, CA, Qiao, H & Polhemus, ME 2015, 'A global map of suitability for coastal Vibrio cholerae under current and future climate conditions', Acta Tropica, vol. 149, pp. 202-211. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actatropica.2015.05.028

A global map of suitability for coastal Vibrio cholerae under current and future climate conditions. / Escobar, Luis E.; Ryan, Sadie J.; Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M.; Finkelstein, Julia L.; King, Christine A.; Qiao, Huijie; Polhemus, Mark E.

En: Acta Tropica, Vol. 149, 01.09.2015, p. 202-211.

Resultado de la investigación: Article

TY - JOUR

T1 - A global map of suitability for coastal Vibrio cholerae under current and future climate conditions

AU - Escobar, Luis E.

AU - Ryan, Sadie J.

AU - Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M.

AU - Finkelstein, Julia L.

AU - King, Christine A.

AU - Qiao, Huijie

AU - Polhemus, Mark E.

PY - 2015/9/1

Y1 - 2015/9/1

N2 - Vibrio cholerae is a globally distributed water-borne pathogen that causes severe diarrheal disease and mortality, with current outbreaks as part of the seventh pandemic. Further understanding of the role of environmental factors in potential pathogen distribution and corresponding V. cholerae disease transmission over time and space is urgently needed to target surveillance of cholera and other climate and water-sensitive diseases. We used an ecological niche model (ENM) to identify environmental variables associated with V. cholerae presence in marine environments, to project a global model of V. cholerae distribution in ocean waters under current and future climate scenarios. We generated an ENM using published reports of V. cholerae in seawater and freely available remotely sensed imagery. Models indicated that factors associated with V. cholerae presence included chlorophyll-a, pH, and sea surface temperature (SST), with chlorophyll-a demonstrating the greatest explanatory power from variables selected for model calibration. We identified specific geographic areas for potential V. cholerae distribution. Coastal Bangladesh, where cholera is endemic, was found to be environmentally similar to coastal areas in Latin America. In a conservative climate change scenario, we observed a predicted increase in areas with environmental conditions suitable for V. cholerae. Findings highlight the potential for vulnerability maps to inform cholera surveillance, early warning systems, and disease prevention and control.

AB - Vibrio cholerae is a globally distributed water-borne pathogen that causes severe diarrheal disease and mortality, with current outbreaks as part of the seventh pandemic. Further understanding of the role of environmental factors in potential pathogen distribution and corresponding V. cholerae disease transmission over time and space is urgently needed to target surveillance of cholera and other climate and water-sensitive diseases. We used an ecological niche model (ENM) to identify environmental variables associated with V. cholerae presence in marine environments, to project a global model of V. cholerae distribution in ocean waters under current and future climate scenarios. We generated an ENM using published reports of V. cholerae in seawater and freely available remotely sensed imagery. Models indicated that factors associated with V. cholerae presence included chlorophyll-a, pH, and sea surface temperature (SST), with chlorophyll-a demonstrating the greatest explanatory power from variables selected for model calibration. We identified specific geographic areas for potential V. cholerae distribution. Coastal Bangladesh, where cholera is endemic, was found to be environmentally similar to coastal areas in Latin America. In a conservative climate change scenario, we observed a predicted increase in areas with environmental conditions suitable for V. cholerae. Findings highlight the potential for vulnerability maps to inform cholera surveillance, early warning systems, and disease prevention and control.

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KW - Cholera

KW - Climate change

KW - Ecological niche modeling

KW - NicheA

KW - Vibrio cholerae

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U2 - 10.1016/j.actatropica.2015.05.028

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C2 - 26048558

AN - SCOPUS:84937555273

VL - 149

SP - 202

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JO - Acta Tropica

JF - Acta Tropica

SN - 0001-706X

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Escobar LE, Ryan SJ, Stewart-Ibarra AM, Finkelstein JL, King CA, Qiao H y otros. A global map of suitability for coastal Vibrio cholerae under current and future climate conditions. Acta Tropica. 2015 sep 1;149:202-211. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actatropica.2015.05.028