Windowed ETAS models with application to the Chilean seismic catalogs

Orietta Nicolis, Marcello Chiodi, Giada Adelfio

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

16 Citations (Scopus)


The seismicity in Chile is estimated using an ETAS (Epidemic Type Aftershock sequences) space-time point process through a semi-parametric technique to account for the estimation of parametric and nonparametric components simultaneously. The two components account for triggered and background seismicity respectively, and are estimated by alternating a ML estimation for the parametric part and a forward predictive likelihood technique for the nonparametric one. Given the geographic and seismological characteristics of Chile, the sensitivity of the technique with respect to different geographical areas is examined in overlapping successive windows with varying latitude. A different behavior of background and triggered seismicity in the different windows is observed and analyzed.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)151-165
Number of pages15
JournalSpatial Statistics
Publication statusPublished - 1 Nov 2015


  • ETAS model
  • EtasFLP
  • R package
  • Space-time point processes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Statistics and Probability
  • Computers in Earth Sciences
  • Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law


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